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The Ashes could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Squad Interest Builds

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, except for young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, change is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a much more significant change with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

Sign up to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of getting injured early in series and a pattern of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change a-coming, rolling round the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.