How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is another twist in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.