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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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